Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 65.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 14.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.07%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
14.27% ( -0.05) | 19.83% ( 0.19) | 65.89% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 50.16% ( -0.79) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.21% ( -0.98) | 43.79% ( 0.98) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.82% ( -0.96) | 66.18% ( 0.97) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.29% ( -0.68) | 42.71% ( 0.68) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.95% ( -0.58) | 79.04% ( 0.58) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.56% ( -0.33) | 12.44% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.63% ( -0.69) | 38.37% ( 0.7) |
Score Analysis |
SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.51% Total : 14.28% | 1-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.92% Total : 19.83% | 0-2 @ 11.54% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 11.07% ( 0.33) 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 8.02% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 6.82% ( -0.1) 0-4 @ 4.18% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.1) 0-5 @ 1.74% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.07) 1-5 @ 1.48% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.25% Total : 65.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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